I Do Something Incredibly Original and Predict the Oscar winners for 2013


It’s Oscar season again my friends, and with 2012 shaping up to be one of the more wide open affairs in award season memory I thought I would tell you all how it’s going to play out. Now you can take my knowledge that has been absorbed from numerous hours alone in movie theaters and apply it at whatever lame party you are going to with your multitude of “friends.” Or you may follow me on twitter, witness me drink and be snarky about people’s hard work, insult my inevitably wrong picks, and go to bed early to wake up refreshed from your Monday morning at work. The choice is yours.

There are 5 categories I won’t be breaking down too much. A few because I only saw 1 or less movies in them and a few because I honestly have no idea how the winner is picked. I will mention who I think will win each category but not go into much depth. It will be obvious what these categories are when you reach them.

The order of discussing categories was based on how much perceived competition is within the category. It’s a completely subjective and dumb way to do it but everyone knows how to search an internet page so you can just skip to whatever you want too easily for me to care. Reading it in order (the way God intended) should really add to the tension by having the more wide-open categories last, and if I learned anything from Argo, it’s that contrived tension is what people want to see. Were those commas used correctly in that last sentence? Who cares?! IT’S OSCAR SEASON! (It has come to my attention that many people care).

Within the categories, nominees will be listed in alphabetical order. Nominees in BOLD CAPS are what I think will win, and ones that are italicized are what I would personally pick to win. BOLD ITALICIZED CAPS means I think they should and will win. I will mention some snubs if I think they warrant mentioning.

Foreign Language:
A Royal Affair
War Witch

I only saw Amour and I definitely want to see No when it comes to my area. Luckily for all of us who have late access to these films Amour was also Nominated for Best Picture so, logically speaking, it can’t lose this category to a movie that wasn’t.

Lead Actor:
Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Denzel Washington for Flight

Jack Black for Bernie
John Hawkes for The Sessions
Suraj Sharma for Life of Pi

As strong as a category as this was, with at least 5 other people I didn’t mention that could have been nominated in a weaker year, it’s basically a forgone conclusion DDL will win. I don’t have a huge problem with it, except that everyone said he would win the moment he was announced for the role and it annoys me that they were right. I would love to see Denzel pull off a glorious upset because it’s Denzel and he is the shit and we are birthday buddies.

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams for The Master
Sally Field for Lincoln
ANNE HATHAWAY for Les Misérables
Helen Hunt for The Sessions
Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook

Samantha Barks for Les Misérables
Gena Gershon for Killer Joe
Susan Surandon for Jeff, Who Lives at Home

Nomination-wise this was truly the laziest bunch of nominees. Besides Helen Hunt they picked the biggest names from the most heralded ensembles of the year. The most egregious inclusion is Jackie Weaver whose character was unarguably the most one dimensional of the year. Similar to Day-Lewis, Anne Hathaway has been notched to win this category since the first trailer for Les Misérables was released. I’m not saying she was bad (she was quite good) but she was given the most Oscar-baity role in the most Oscar-baity movie and allowed to sing the most Oscar-baity song. It’s too bad that the movie was so full of big names that no one seemed to recognize just how damn great Samantha Barks was. It also sucks that Helen Hunt has her best role in ages and will have to listen to Hathaway’s speech about how shocked she is to win the award she has been predicted to win since day one. If it’s anything like that abomination that was her Golden Globe speech I will lose my mind.

Original Song
Before My Time from Chasing Ice
Everybody Needs a Best Friend from Ted
Pi’s Lullaby from Life of Pi
Skyfall from Skyfall
SUDDENLY from Les Misérables

Les Misérables invented an extra song to win an extra Oscar. It’s hard for me to care since this category is mostly bullshit anyway. I only want Skyfall to win because Adele’s talking voice is so insanely different from her singing voice that it gives me endless amounts of joy to here her speak. I went from not caring much about her either way to absolutely loving her after the Golden Globes. I still don’t care about her music but I would listen to her give speeches all day long.

Short, Animated:
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare

Paperman is fantastic, but the quality of Adam and Dog and Head Over Heels makes this just “short” (haha, me funny) of a lock. Fresh Guacamole is interesting, albeit simple, and The Simpsons short being included means they went with as recognizable a name as they could get for the fifth nomination.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Les Misérables

The Impossible

While I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if Les Misérables won here I feel like they will give this category to fantasy movies whenever possible. The Wolfman won it in 2010 for Christ’s sake. It’s interesting (and by interesting, I mean stupid) they don’t often nominate movies that use make-up to show injuries. I think The Impossible was way more deserving than Hitchcock or Les Misérables make-up wise.

Original Score:
Anna Karenina
Life of Pi

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Despite the soundtrack for Beasts doing a lot of the heavy lifting for the audiences emotions it was not nominated for some reason. It probably wouldn’t have won anyway but it still should have got some recognition. I honestly have no clue who will win this. I rarely remember a film’s score afterwards (Beasts was the only one for this year) and I only picked Lincoln because A) John Williams is the biggest name of the bunch and B) it could very easily be the movie that takes the lions share of awards. Part of that involves taking a bunch of these less heralded awards that no one will know enough about to be able to complain. In that same vein I could see Argo taking this as well.


Speaking of shit I don’t know about…

Sound Mixing:
Les Misérables
Life of Pi

Sound Editing:
Django Unchained
Life of Pi

These are guesses because even after reading the definitions of these categories I still don’t know what the hell they mean. I usually use this portion of the show to go to the bathroom and get a bite to eat. I picked Lincoln for the same reasons as Original Score and Zero Dark Thirty because it has to win something right?

Short, Documentary:
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart

I didn’t see any of these. I’ll likely never see any of these. I have a 20% chance of getting this right…Mondays at Racine will win. It’s a lock.


OK back to having some clue of what I am talking about.

Best Editing:
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

The Master

Most of the time the movie that wins this award wins best picture. I have now spoiled what I think will win best picture. But what do I WANT to win best picture?!?!? Oh you already know that too…shit.

Visual Effects:
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Snow White and the Huntsman

Cloud Atlas

It has to be Life of Pi right? That tiger looked way too real for them to give it to superheros, dwarves, or aliens. The only thing that rivaled that tiger in realism was Ted (who was so unfunny I guess people didn’t notice how amazing an achievement he was visually speaking).

The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

The Queen of Versailles

Well, I haven’t seen any of these either. I want to see 5 Broken Cameras and Searching for Sugar Man but I just didn’t get around to it before writing this. 5 Broken Cameras seems to be getting the most “buzz” from what I can tell but Searching for Sugar Man seems to be the most accessible and recognizable name from the bunch. The other 3 I know little about except that they are depressing. Even if I had seen all of them I still wouldn’t know which would win. They are all probably quite close in quality and it’s harder to differentiate a winner without being able to hit key attributes like acting and cinematography.

NOW I will be talking about stuff I know about again.

Short, Live Action:
Death of a Shadow

All of 5 of these movies vary from good to great. If that didn’t make it hard enough to decide a winner, this is another category that’s hard to judge how the Academy will vote. Curfew and Death of a Shadow were my favorites. Curfew being a very dark little comedy and Death of a Shadow being a Jean Pierre-Jeanut-esque dark fantasy tale. Both show the great things that can be achieved in the short genre. The other 3 films are good too, Buzkashi Boys being a coming of age tale about two boys in Afghanistan, Henry being a unique take on aging and deteriorating memory, and Asad being a small story about a boy in conflict ridden Somalia. Any of them could win, I feel like Curfew has the worst chance since it’s the only comedy of the bunch, and I have a feeling Buzkashi will take it. Either way they are all worth seeing.

Note to self: You’re friends barely watch normal movies they aren’t going to go out of their way to watch shorts.

Animated Feature:
The Pirates!: Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

This wouldn’t even be a debate if Brave hadn’t been disappointing. I still think it wins, but more because the old guys in the Academy don’t have a soft spot for video games and won’t vote for the vastly superior Wreck-It Ralph. The Pirates!: Band of Misfits was entertaining but ultimately overlooked, and has the worst chance of winning. That leaves the only true contenders being ParaNorman and Frankenweenie, whose similarness in tone will have them take votes away from each other. When you don’t know what to pick in this category it’s generally safe to just bet on PIXAR.

Best Cinematography:
Anna Karenina
Life of Pi

The Master

Skyfall and Life of Pi seem to be the two that are least likely to win here. The real battle is between Django and Lincoln. Anna Karenina was shot in such a unique way that it has an outside chance but it would still be a pretty shocking win. I’m giving it to Django because well shot Westerns are ripe for wins in this category.

Production Design:
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi

Cloud Atlas

Also known as “Art Direction” this is one of the tougher catagories to predict. This year it’s especially tough considering all 5 can make a strong case for winning. Picking Anna Karenina to win will be my boldest prediction of the year but it was just too innovatively shot to not get the nod from me. 

Note: Apparently “innovatively” is not a word. I’m keeping it there. I do not care. This is my blog and I’m a grown ass man who is capable of putting whatever suffix he wants on whatever word he wants.

New note: I was right and the wordpress spell check was wrong.

Costume Design:
Anna Karenina
Mirror, Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

Cloud Atlas

Snow White and the Huntsman has zero shot at winning this. Mirror, Mirror’s costumes were so bizarre it has a glimmer of a chance. The battle truly lies with the first three films. Anna will get bumped (again) because it’s not in the same league as Les Misérables and Lincoln and it’s tough to pick which one of those two will get the nod. I picked Les Mis because it had more diversity in costumes.


Original Screenplay:
Django Unchained
Zero Dark Thirty

Rust and Bone
The Master
Seven Psychopaths

I honestly think Zero Dark Thirty and Django have the worst chances to win this. Zero Dark Thirty because it “glorifies torture” (it doesn’t by the way) and Django because it uses the N-word half a billion times (slight hyperbole….but only slight). That leaves Flight and Amour to contend with Moonrise Kingdom. All three are good movies but Moonrise was a much more rich movie screenplay wise. Also it’s the only award it really has a chance to win and deserves a little recognition. I could see them giving this to Amour but they really shouldn’t.

Adapted Screenplay:
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook

Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
The Perks of Being a Wallflower

I’m already annoyed that Life of Pi won’t win this award. When an “unfilmable” novel gets successfully converted to the big screen and is nominated for Best Picture it probably deserves to win this award. Speaking of unfilmable novels I’m slightly surprised Cloud Atlas didn’t get a nod here. I really hope Silver Linings Playbook doesn’t win for obvious reasons (I don’t like it and it’s lazily written).

Supporting Actor:
Alan Arkin for Argo
Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
for Django Unchained

Tom Holland for The Impossible
Michael Peña for End of Watch
Sam Rockwell for Seven Psychopaths
Richard Jenkins and Bradley Whitford for Cabin in the Woods (you know they deserved it)

Tommy Lee Jones and Christoph Waltz are neck and neck to win this. I picked Waltz because it seemed like he actually acted in his role as opposed to TLJ who was just playing himself in a parliamentary wig. De Niro has a shot because people inexplicably like Silver Linings Playbook and his character. Arkin was only voted in because people apparently hate Sam Rockwell and refuse to give him any credit for being one of the best actors alive. Phillip Seymour Hoffman should win but he won’t.

Lead Actress:
Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
JENNIFER LAWRENCE for Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva for Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts for The Impossible

Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone
Mary Elizabeth Winstead for Smashed

Quvenzhané Wallis made me cry twice in one movie so she would get my vote every time. Unfortunately it’s a three lady race and she is not a part of it. Chastain and Lawrence are the favorites with Riva having an outside chance to take it. I gave it to Lawrence. People were obsessed with SLP’s cast so they have to win at least one of the awards and she was at least the best of the 4 that were nominated from it. I would rather Chastain get it because she’s awesome and should have won last year for Take Shelter, but unfortunately she is running into the young starlet buzz saw that is Katniss Everdeen.

Let it be known I actually like Jennifer Lawrence a lot. I just really don’t like Silver Linings Playbook.


Michael Haneke for Amour
Ang Lee for Life of Pi
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Benh Zietlin for Beats of the Southern Wild

Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master
The directors of the other 4 Best Picture Nominees

By letting Spielberg win they can essentially say they have co-Best Pictures since Argo is going to win that. Ang Lee deserves this Oscar but he won’t win. I am annoyed about it and don’t want to talk about it.

Best Picture:
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
The Sessions
Or any other great movie that came out this year since they can nominate 10 films for Best Picture but only did 9 for some stupid reason

Amour won’t win because the Academy is a bunch of old bastards and probably don’t want to watch a movie about growing old and dying.

Argo will win because the boy’s club is sorry that they forgot to nominate Benny for best director. I wouldn’t have minded it until the end of the movie when HE HAD CARS GOING FAST ENOUGH TO CATCH UP TO A PLANE THAT WAS TAKING OFF! Do you honestly want to produce contrived tension that badly?

Beasts of the Southern Wild has my heart, but sadly it won’t win. I hope it’s nomination will inspire many people to see it, including my friends who will no doubt tell me how much they didn’t like it as soon as they are finished with it.

Django Unchained is what a lot of my peers probably want to win because it’s Tarantino and they all worship at his alter.

Les Misérables won’t win because people couldn’t get past those intense close-ups. Also no one wants to see Anne Hathaway hog the spotlight like she did at the Golden Globes when Les Mis won best comedy/musical.

Life of Pi won’t win, but my dad wishes it would.

Lincoln could win, but as I said earlier it gets the co-win with the Best Director award.

Silver Linings Playbook has a long shot of winning and if it does I will go on a social media tirade that will rival when the 49ers lost the Super Bowl earlier this month. I wonder what animal I would change my avatars to this time?

Zero Dark Thirty won’t win, but remember when it was the favorite the week before it came out? What the hell happened? Oh yeah, people who hadn’t seen the movie wrote articles about it glorifying torture and now it has a weird stigma.

That’s it everyone. Enjoy the program this Sunday and remember, the Oscars truly don’t matter at all. It’s completely masturbatory and most everyone there deserves to be made fun of with a few exceptions:

  1. Quvenzhané Wallis – she’s just a kid
  2. Denzel Washington – because in reality he is truly above all this shit and you know it
  3. Emmanuelle Riva – Older gal who deserves a little credit for her long career
  4. Joaquin Phoenix – he’s crazy
  5. David O. Russell – he might yell at you….and it’s scary
  6. The directors of the short films – They are not part of the system (minus the Simpson’s/Disney short). This is a legitimate thrill for them and they will more than likely go back to their hometowns after the event is through. Let them have their moment.
  7. In Memorium people – have tact for once in your damn life
  8. Me – I have nothing else but movies dammit!

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